In modern history, there have been constant errors of expectation of quick end to war. We need to begin sober thinking about the Russia-Ukraine war a year from now. We are still in an early stage of a modern re-run of World War 1, begun in 2001. We need to consider history, in wider perspective.
I am writing this on 6 March 2022. Developments on the ground in Ukraine are slow, but repercussions beyond are extensive. Sanctions imposed on Russia have implications far beyond Russia. In the past week not only the Russian rouble has fallen, also the Euro has fallen, if not so far. The USD and gold have increased in value. All commodity prices are up, the highest being wheat by 40%. This is not only a market disruption but also a human disaster as Russia and Ukraine are major wheat exporters. As much as with the global distribution of vaccines we can expect rich countries to eat first, snooze, and then think about famine elsewhere. European gas prices rose 120%, Reuters reported.
There are concerted global efforts by the United States to coerce other countries to fall in with the US desire to isolate Russia, aware of wider consequences. Complete success has been achieved for now in Europe despite the imminent extensive consequences for economic and human life throughout Europe. Check again in a few months to see upheavals in Europe.
AUKUS aukomatically of course. Johnson and Morrison acquire tin hats to go with their tarnished star badges. Defence budgets everywhere run run run, with little civilian comprehension or restraint.
Enthusiasm for exclusion of Russia from SWIFT will cause a global economic downturn; the world and Russia are too enmeshed. We are probably a decade from China securing a global alternative, but they will now work harder and faster.
The US public is generally very supportive of the current Biden position, with general ignorance of American provocation towards this war. There are some exceptions. More people should listen to Professor John Mearscheimer.
Secretary of State Blinken is reported in Washington media to be ‘weighing up’ whether to impose sanctions on Quad member India for not falling into line. Indian airlines continue to fly to Russia and over Russia to the US. India has bought Russian antiaircraft systems, as has Turkey, a NATO member. Turkish Airlines is still offering seats from Istanbul to Moscow; their planes crossing Poland and the Baltic States to avoid the war zone.
Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar have large amounts of sovereign assets in Russia. They are in an uneasy situation, as also of course for the US and Europe given the power and importance of oil. The three big airlines Etihad, Emirates and Qatar have been flying over Russia to North America. Turkish military aircraft have made deliveries to Poland in the past week. Turkey is a bit of a problem for Washington and Europe.
From China including Hong Kong flights to Europe via Russia as well as to Russia continue in volume. From Taipei I’ve seen one flight, by EvaAir, go to London over Russia, avoiding mainland China, whereas the ROC government airline China Airlines now flies to Europe across China including Xinjiang of course, over Kazakhstan, then avoiding the war zone by heading for the Caspian, Black Sea and Rumania. Of course most of China Airlines routes are to mainland China and that is source of most of its revenue.
Qantas about a week ago stopped taking the easy direct route to Darwin from London via Belarus and Russia, instead traveling through crowded airways over Iraq, (where the RAAF still has active refueling aircraft contributing not least to war crimes in Yemen), then India.
On 5 March US and Chinese governments reported that in a phone conversation Secretary of State Blinken asked Foreign Minister Wang Yi to conform in condemning Russia and endorsing the US-NATO sanctions regime. Wang Yi did not agree.
China has a border with Russia 4200km long, it is folly for anyone to imagine closing it — for so many reasons. They last had (pointless) wars in 1969 and last month signed an agreement on core interests, the Chinese news release is here. I cannot access the relevant document on the Kremlin website, their site seems blocked or knocked out. In the interest of the first step in strategic thinking – know thine enemy – you might try: www.en.kremlin.ru/
China in January 2022 celebrated sending the 50,000th train over the New Silk Road rail routes from China to Europe, transiting Russia. The global engineering achievement of the century, thus far, core of the Belt and Road Initiative the US has sought to undermine with nips at heels. A triumph in escaping US containment at sea. But now this rail system is at risk, to say the least. At any time more than thirty trains have been heading west. In 2021 total freight volume rose 25% to 1.2 million TEUs [twenty foot container equivalents, a standard measure for freight volume]. All that is now blocked from entering Europe from Russia. Consider how putting all that to sea will compound problems in Pacific supply chains. I note in passing that the US pandemic stimulus packages increased Chinese exports to the US dramatically.
The US’s approach to China at the moment has three elements. First, the IndoPacific mantra and defence forces mobilisation, plus AUKUS, plus the Japanese government falling into line: increased political and military containment of China. Second, the maintenance of ongoing trade war with China. Third, the Biden Administration’s willing adoption of anti-Chinese memes, hostility blown intense by Trump. One small step away from this anti-Chinese campaign: abandonment by the Justice department of its program to hunt down Chinese infiltration of universities and business. A disease caught by the Australian government and unlikely to be abandoned soon here.
The Russia-Ukraine war, in which no official American bodies are on the line, might lend hope to restoring the omnipotence of the United States, the dream begun in 1989, when according to US legend America brought about the collapse of the Soviet Union, whereas in fact it was the Presidents of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, the slav members of the Soviet Union, who in December 1989 announced at Brest, Belarus, that the Soviet Union no longer existed, you’re out of a job Gorby… Gorbachev, the liberal reformer, friend of the US, West Germany, and more, with his policies of glasnost and perestroika, had been unhorsed by hard men… beginning when he was in Crimea for a summer holiday in August. Britannica has a useful ball by ball account. We all have little awareness of this hard court, being played like trout by President Zelenskyy.
We are driven by media that require, for profit or political survival, to have big news every day. Perhaps, as Western media suggest, President Putin has expected very quick results in the Ukraine. We don’t know for certain, but it’s a common error of modern military chiefs. In part 2 I will discuss the fate in recent decades of dreams of quick war results. `
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